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	<title>Comments on: The terrible truth about economics</title>
	<atom:link href="http://arxivblog.com/?feed=rss2&#038;p=693" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693</link>
	<description>News and views from the coal face of science</description>
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		<title>By: James</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-5518</link>
		<dc:creator>James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2009 06:27:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-5518</guid>
		<description>You do realize that the financial sector is by far the most regulated part of the economy, right? Self-discipline is hard to maintain when the government says that it&#039;s watching over you to make sure you don&#039;t mess up (whether or not that&#039;s true).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You do realize that the financial sector is by far the most regulated part of the economy, right? Self-discipline is hard to maintain when the government says that it&#8217;s watching over you to make sure you don&#8217;t mess up (whether or not that&#8217;s true).</p>
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		<title>By: kio</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-5419</link>
		<dc:creator>kio</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:40:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-5419</guid>
		<description>I disagree with almost everything that Dr. Bouchaud wrote.
So, had to compile a paper :
Does economics need a scientific revolution?
http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14476.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I disagree with almost everything that Dr. Bouchaud wrote.<br />
So, had to compile a paper :<br />
Does economics need a scientific revolution?<br />
<a href="http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14476.html" rel="nofollow">http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14476.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Victor Aguilar</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-4798</link>
		<dc:creator>Victor Aguilar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Feb 2009 20:46:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-4798</guid>
		<description>My assumptions are three:

1) One&#039;s value scale is totally (linearly) ordered:

i) Transitive; p ≤ q and q ≤ r imply p ≤ r

ii) Reflexive; p ≤ p

iii) Anti-Symmetric; p ≤ q and q ≤ p imply p = q

iv) Total; p ≤ q or q ≤ p

2) Marginal (diminishing) utility, u(s), is such that:

i) It is independent of first-unit demand.

ii) It is negative monotonic; that is, u&#039;(s) &lt; 0.

iii) The integral of u(s) from zero to infinity is finite.

3) First-unit demand conforms to proportionate effect:

i) Value changes each day by a proportion (called 1+εj, with j denoting the day), of the previous day&#039;s value.

ii) In the long run, the εj&#039;s may be considered random as they are not directly related to each other nor are they uniquely a function of
value.

iii) The εj&#039;s are taken from an unspecified distribution with a finite mean and a non-zero, finite variance.

A Non-Mathematical Explanation of the Axioms: http://www.axiomaticeconomics.com/axioms.php

Socrates and Hume at Billiards: http://www.axiomaticeconomics.com/socrates.php

This latter paper is a simulated dialogue between Socrates and David Hume over a game of billiards in heaven. They are visited by a swami and a physicist, both of whom counsel Socrates on where his billiard ball will go after he hits it with his cue ball. Then, Socrates and Hume contrast these two quotations:

David Hume: &quot;When I see, for instance, a billiard ball moving in a straight line toward another,... may I not conceive that a hundred different events might as well follow from that cause?... All these suppositions are consistent and conceivable. Why then should we give preference to one which is no more consistent or conceivable than the rest?&quot;

Cristobal Young: &quot;Milton Friedman, torchbearer for the ‘free market’, insisted that the realism of background assumptions is not important. ‘In general, the more significant the theory, the more unrealistic the assumptions’. Good theory may well make use of ‘wildly inaccurate’ assumptions, and proceed ‘as if’ the assumptions held true. The purpose of theory is to generate testable implications.&quot;

Here I am quoting Cristobal Young’s review of Robert Nelson’s book, Economics as Religion, which Bouchard mentions in his paper.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My assumptions are three:</p>
<p>1) One&#8217;s value scale is totally (linearly) ordered:</p>
<p>i) Transitive; p ≤ q and q ≤ r imply p ≤ r</p>
<p>ii) Reflexive; p ≤ p</p>
<p>iii) Anti-Symmetric; p ≤ q and q ≤ p imply p = q</p>
<p>iv) Total; p ≤ q or q ≤ p</p>
<p>2) Marginal (diminishing) utility, u(s), is such that:</p>
<p>i) It is independent of first-unit demand.</p>
<p>ii) It is negative monotonic; that is, u&#8217;(s) &lt; 0.</p>
<p>iii) The integral of u(s) from zero to infinity is finite.</p>
<p>3) First-unit demand conforms to proportionate effect:</p>
<p>i) Value changes each day by a proportion (called 1+εj, with j denoting the day), of the previous day&#8217;s value.</p>
<p>ii) In the long run, the εj&#8217;s may be considered random as they are not directly related to each other nor are they uniquely a function of<br />
value.</p>
<p>iii) The εj&#8217;s are taken from an unspecified distribution with a finite mean and a non-zero, finite variance.</p>
<p>A Non-Mathematical Explanation of the Axioms: <a href="http://www.axiomaticeconomics.com/axioms.php" rel="nofollow">http://www.axiomaticeconomics.com/axioms.php</a></p>
<p>Socrates and Hume at Billiards: <a href="http://www.axiomaticeconomics.com/socrates.php" rel="nofollow">http://www.axiomaticeconomics.com/socrates.php</a></p>
<p>This latter paper is a simulated dialogue between Socrates and David Hume over a game of billiards in heaven. They are visited by a swami and a physicist, both of whom counsel Socrates on where his billiard ball will go after he hits it with his cue ball. Then, Socrates and Hume contrast these two quotations:</p>
<p>David Hume: &#8220;When I see, for instance, a billiard ball moving in a straight line toward another,&#8230; may I not conceive that a hundred different events might as well follow from that cause?&#8230; All these suppositions are consistent and conceivable. Why then should we give preference to one which is no more consistent or conceivable than the rest?&#8221;</p>
<p>Cristobal Young: &#8220;Milton Friedman, torchbearer for the ‘free market’, insisted that the realism of background assumptions is not important. ‘In general, the more significant the theory, the more unrealistic the assumptions’. Good theory may well make use of ‘wildly inaccurate’ assumptions, and proceed ‘as if’ the assumptions held true. The purpose of theory is to generate testable implications.&#8221;</p>
<p>Here I am quoting Cristobal Young’s review of Robert Nelson’s book, Economics as Religion, which Bouchard mentions in his paper.</p>
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		<title>By: Kjalnot</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-4087</link>
		<dc:creator>Kjalnot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Jan 2009 09:10:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-4087</guid>
		<description>The biggest mistake of all, when talking about economics, is thinking that it might actually be possible to create fundamental laws that always hold true (like you can in hard sciences).

This is because economics is not controlled by rules, it is driven by behaviour. As soon as you could prove, with evidence, that, say, the stock market will go down because of X. Because everyone knows that is what is going to happend, they will adjust their bevaiour, and that will change the situation, making the &quot;proof&quot; no longer true.

We would all love if economics could produce laws and proofs, but in fact, we actually KNOW that such a thing is not possible</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The biggest mistake of all, when talking about economics, is thinking that it might actually be possible to create fundamental laws that always hold true (like you can in hard sciences).</p>
<p>This is because economics is not controlled by rules, it is driven by behaviour. As soon as you could prove, with evidence, that, say, the stock market will go down because of X. Because everyone knows that is what is going to happend, they will adjust their bevaiour, and that will change the situation, making the &#8220;proof&#8221; no longer true.</p>
<p>We would all love if economics could produce laws and proofs, but in fact, we actually KNOW that such a thing is not possible</p>
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		<title>By: emmanuel</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-3303</link>
		<dc:creator>emmanuel</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Nov 2008 16:48:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-3303</guid>
		<description>After the &quot;perfect market&quot; myth, now is coming the spare wheel myth of &quot;self-organized&quot; systems, but you say a myth? No, it is true, a shown by &quot;various physicists&quot;... The butterfly effect triggering the Irak war or the global warming? Using metaphora as scientific propositions, it simply the proof that the arguments are NOT scientific!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After the &#8220;perfect market&#8221; myth, now is coming the spare wheel myth of &#8220;self-organized&#8221; systems, but you say a myth? No, it is true, a shown by &#8220;various physicists&#8221;&#8230; The butterfly effect triggering the Irak war or the global warming? Using metaphora as scientific propositions, it simply the proof that the arguments are NOT scientific!</p>
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		<title>By: Sandro Magi</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-3222</link>
		<dc:creator>Sandro Magi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2008 06:09:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-3222</guid>
		<description>I think &lt;a href=&quot;http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/howiwork.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Paul Krugman&#039;s article&lt;/a&gt; is worth mentioning here. He discusses economics and its relation to sciences, and also many of the problems of the economists&#039; mindset. There&#039;s nothing wrong with the way economists devise and analyze models, since they are trying to eliminate noise to distill the causal factors in a model. Economics would be brutally hard otherwise.

Krugman makes a valid point however, that economists then begin to confuse reality with their models, which leads them to sometimes believe ridiculous things.

Re: &quot;Free markets are wild markets. It is foolish to believe that the market can impose its own self-discipline.&quot;

Free markets are self-regulating, if &lt;em&gt;everything they manage are private goods&lt;/em&gt;. Of course, not everything is a private good, and so free markets cause problems if left unattended.

Re: &quot;Bouchaud could also have added the example of economists’ assumption that sustained and unlimited economic growth is possible on a planet with limited resources.&quot;

Technically, our resources are not as limited as one might think. Given sufficient energy, any resources can be created or transmuted at will. It always comes down to energy, and we&#039;re nowhere near tapping the limits of the energy available from the surface of the Earth, let alone in our solar system.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think <a href="http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/howiwork.html" rel="nofollow">Paul Krugman&#8217;s article</a> is worth mentioning here. He discusses economics and its relation to sciences, and also many of the problems of the economists&#8217; mindset. There&#8217;s nothing wrong with the way economists devise and analyze models, since they are trying to eliminate noise to distill the causal factors in a model. Economics would be brutally hard otherwise.</p>
<p>Krugman makes a valid point however, that economists then begin to confuse reality with their models, which leads them to sometimes believe ridiculous things.</p>
<p>Re: &#8220;Free markets are wild markets. It is foolish to believe that the market can impose its own self-discipline.&#8221;</p>
<p>Free markets are self-regulating, if <em>everything they manage are private goods</em>. Of course, not everything is a private good, and so free markets cause problems if left unattended.</p>
<p>Re: &#8220;Bouchaud could also have added the example of economists’ assumption that sustained and unlimited economic growth is possible on a planet with limited resources.&#8221;</p>
<p>Technically, our resources are not as limited as one might think. Given sufficient energy, any resources can be created or transmuted at will. It always comes down to energy, and we&#8217;re nowhere near tapping the limits of the energy available from the surface of the Earth, let alone in our solar system.</p>
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		<title>By: Kent</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-3217</link>
		<dc:creator>Kent</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2008 18:48:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-3217</guid>
		<description>Wow Doug, what a great comment about burning off to control forest fires. Maybe it&#039;s just because it is election year in the US but what is up with the phobia that the slightest market regulations automatically leads to &quot;socalism&quot;? Is the US really that naive? Look at the mess the lack of regulations has got us into today!

Obama wants to tax the rich a bit more to &quot;distribute the wealth&quot;. Many VERY democratic countries already do this.

My advice for after we get out of the sh*t-hole we&#039;re in? Put away the cold war hang over and lets empirically find the optimum balance between a free and controlled market. Sure burning off the whole forest stops future fires as well but that&#039;s not too useful.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wow Doug, what a great comment about burning off to control forest fires. Maybe it&#8217;s just because it is election year in the US but what is up with the phobia that the slightest market regulations automatically leads to &#8220;socalism&#8221;? Is the US really that naive? Look at the mess the lack of regulations has got us into today!</p>
<p>Obama wants to tax the rich a bit more to &#8220;distribute the wealth&#8221;. Many VERY democratic countries already do this.</p>
<p>My advice for after we get out of the sh*t-hole we&#8217;re in? Put away the cold war hang over and lets empirically find the optimum balance between a free and controlled market. Sure burning off the whole forest stops future fires as well but that&#8217;s not too useful.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug Scott</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-3215</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Scott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2008 18:28:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-3215</guid>
		<description>There are ways of controlling chaotic processes, so it&#039;s not all gloom. Obviously, Keynes and his followers didn&#039;t hold on to classical economics but bent the rules slightly to deal with what they could measure. That&#039;s what most practising economists seem to do (I am not an economist).

The reference to forest fires reminded me that the Australian aborigines used to upset the settling English farmers by regularly burning off the forests. Australians now do the same, having realised that ever since they started to do so, the incidence of huge forest fires has diminished significantly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are ways of controlling chaotic processes, so it&#8217;s not all gloom. Obviously, Keynes and his followers didn&#8217;t hold on to classical economics but bent the rules slightly to deal with what they could measure. That&#8217;s what most practising economists seem to do (I am not an economist).</p>
<p>The reference to forest fires reminded me that the Australian aborigines used to upset the settling English farmers by regularly burning off the forests. Australians now do the same, having realised that ever since they started to do so, the incidence of huge forest fires has diminished significantly.</p>
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		<title>By: Economics and physics &#171; Supradeep Narayana&#8217;s Blog</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-3081</link>
		<dc:creator>Economics and physics &#171; Supradeep Narayana&#8217;s Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Nov 2008 16:41:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-3081</guid>
		<description>[...] &#124; Tags: dismal science, Economics &#124; &#160;  If you want to know why economics is dismal science, read this.     [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] | Tags: dismal science, Economics | &nbsp;  If you want to know why economics is dismal science, read this.     [...]</p>
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		<title>By: 关于经济学的可怕真相 - Misty Sky - Tough future,awful risk.</title>
		<link>http://arxivblog.com/?p=693&#038;cpage=1#comment-3015</link>
		<dc:creator>关于经济学的可怕真相 - Misty Sky - Tough future,awful risk.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:03:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://arxivblog.com/?p=693#comment-3015</guid>
		<description>[...] 牛顿说过，为疯狂的人类行为建模要比行星的运动困难的多。与物理学比较，可以公平的说经济学理论的成功数量是少得可怜，当然部分原</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] 牛顿说过，为疯狂的人类行为建模要比行星的运动困难的多。与物理学比较，可以公平的说经济学理论的成功数量是少得可怜，当然部分原</p>
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